February 23, 2012 Leave a comment
Started using the term ‘waffle’ last year after storm tracks would vary across models multiple times in the day. Every storm has this effect, it’s just a fun way to term a forecast model’s tendency to hone in on the true weather scenario.
Waffle effect has trended to have the heaviest snows in a swath from Kalamazoo to Lansing, to Flint and eastward. Snows will be significant in this area. Moderate accumulations of 5-7 inches of snow will be expected by the time Friday evening rolls around. Generally the I69 and I94 corridors will receive the greatest snows from this storm. Areas north will taper to 3-6, and areas along the eastern Michigan/Ohio border, which will start with a rain/sleet event, will see 2-4.
Most of southern lower Michigan has been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings (assuming DTX follows suit later this afternoon). Central Michigan has been warned under an advisory for 3-6 inches, so not as much expected in central Michigan.
Would not be surprised to see isolated amounts of 10 inches in the heaviest zones. Storm has been looking to gain strength over the last 24 hours. Grand Rapids NWS seems to be throwing the 10 inch estimate around quite a bit in the sweet spot, but I’ve found they like to overestimate typically. Will be interesting to see a storm total graphic to match these zones up with what was forecasted.
Timing looks to be perfect for making a horrible morning commute and many school closings. I think Thursday’s evening commute will be sparred. Again, I don’t predict school closings, I just predict the snow :) .