scoping out winter…

Right now is about the time that when I mention showers, I mean snow showers. It seems to be cool enough now that extended forecasts will show either a rain/snow mix over all rain. Which is a good thing! Because that gets me all antsy and excited to report my findings on snow systems.

Now apparently we got snow Thursday night? Is that right? I would not know because when I awoke this morning, thinking “Oooo is there snow outside?”, I was greeted by a giant NO written in green grass. Some contacts apparently said they saw snow, like a millimeter of it, but measurable right? So something happened 5 miles away, and I missed out on it.  Crazy how things happen like that. Hopefully things will change and I will see my first snowflake of the season sometime soon…

NOAA often puts out ‘Seasonal Outlooks’ for the public to view. These go over climatic data over the years in the location and show trends. They also give a shot at predicting what this years season will be like. These things are really in depth. Think I would need about 3 boxes of Triscuts to munch on while reading and absorbing the whole article.  (PDF Document)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/climate/winterOutlook0910.pdf

Basically, El Nino is coming to town this winter. These names are given to the warming and cooling of the ocean water off the Western coast of South America. Ocean temps play a key role in weather patterns, and if things flip flop around, you can expect the weather systems to change too. Now it’s not going to be night and day when it comes to El Nino’s effects on North America. Usually El Nino/La Nina has a greater impact on South America and Indonisia where it is closer to.

I think since the El Nino is just getting in place this winter, it will be about the same as last years winter. If we do not get any major storm early in Dec/Jan, can expect a dumping later in Feb/Mar. Temps should also range the same, like I said these changes are not durastic.

 

Looking in the short term:

Exciting news, first rather large snow system could move through this week, Wed Night into Thursday. Jumped out of my chair when I saw it this morning on the GFS, it has held through all the model runs through the day which means it is fairly certain. Of course we all know the weather can change on a dime and it can shift a little right on its course and compleatly miss us, but you can always hope. Thinking 2-4 inches, right now, maybe + or – a inch or so, latest models has it further East which could lower the amounts.(rough location marked in red)

Possible wrap around snow could give us our first accumulations

For now though a cold front moves through tomorrow expect some rain changing to a mix of rain and snow going into the night hours. A few lingering showers for Monday and Mon Night.

Will keep updated on things to come.

 

 

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About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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