1-2 punch

Let me begin this entry reminding you that I do not predict snow days. I predict when we will be getting a rather large amount of snow (in the winter). A lot of people have been questioning me as to when we will get our first snow day (in regard to school) and I do not predict those. I do not know the criteria by which school is closed (except for a -22 or lower degree wind chill…..). I predict what time(days) we will expect snow. And Tues Night/Wed is one of those times.

Before talking about what could possibly be the first significant snow storm of the season or something there of, we will peek at Monday’s little system.

Sunday night into Monday, we could get a 2-3 inch snowfall. This is due to a disturbance trolling across the states. Storm looks to intensify as it approaches, getting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. I think the snow will come in waves, but they will be heavy. Do not think it will be a consistent snow that lasts all day. Will have to see.

Wed Night/Thurs
This looks to be our first large snowfall as models are in agreement and everything looks for sure. We are probably going to get dumped on. If the storm were to come as predicted now, we could easily see 6+ inches. A mention of warmer air sneaking in and making a quick changeover to rain/mix is possible, but things should revert back to all snow. What happens? With cold air in place (think it was 17 or 18F last night) and continuing to be, this strong storm will not be able to bring enough warm air with it to change precip. Usually you get the largest and heaviest snows when you are close to the change in precip just because the temp change helps with intensity. This could easily turn out to be a blizzard as winds will be strong behind the storm(with wrap around snows) and much cooler air will come in behind. timing of the storm is still awkward, but looks to start Wed night and continue through Thursday. The pattern we are dealing with now is filled with storms, one after the other.

Decided to include a animation showing the storm rolling through. This is the 6z run of the GFS model. I used a program to zoom in on our area for better viewing. (original material from NOAA http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/)

Wed Night storm shown rolling across the Great Lakes

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About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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