nasty trick

Oh how devious of the weather, to play tricks on those who see fun things in it…

In a weeks time this storm has gone from dream status (6+inches of snow) to the dumps ( just warm enough to rain, but cold enough to make you hate/absolutely dread being outside). Reminds me of how Southeastern Michigan always seems to sneak out of the biggest storms, sitting on the sidelines watching it pour a foot of snow on everyone else.

To sum things up:

During the week the Low pressure has decided to shift further West and North, this gives us the warmer, wetter side of it, rather than the cold and snowy part. I was always hopeful the next model run would show it farther East proving at least a little more snow. However a large swath of Winter Storm Watched and Warnings have been posted for the storm, and if forecasters were confident in the snow tracking toward out area, we would indeed too be placed under a watch. As this graphic from NOAA shows, the Low will track just West of our location.

NOAA HPC showing probable Low tracks. The Low will past just West of us, keeping us on the warm side for most of the precipitation.

So here is the schedule of events:

  1. Snow will begin Tuesday night (8pm) possible inch or so with it
  2. Snow will change over to rain early morning (1-4am), very heavy (almost quarter inch), probably melting any accumulations
  3. Rain continues thoughout the morning tapering off towards noon.
  4. Dry spot will advance though area giving us a break of all precip
  5. Gets much colder in the afternoon as fresh arctic air is ushered in
  6. Wind will pick up for the afternoon and night (gusts possibly over 35 mph)
  7. Any lingering precip should fall as scattered snow showers.
  8. Lake effect machine will be churning afterwards, bands may or may not reach us, if so, rather light accumulation.

Nice birthday gift would to have it actually be mostly snow, even if we aren’t getting the heaviest part :P

To not seem like such a scrooge looking at the holiday season, other places will get totaled. Some places in Wisconson and in the U.P. may get well over a foot of snow! Areas over there may experience multiple snow days before they manage to dig themselves out. Travel will probably be impossible for a number of hours.

Long range does not provide any other notable storms, but once this thing passes we will see what happens.


About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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