Finally some Hope!

Next Tuesday (Feb 9th) holds a possibility for a large snow event. Looking at it now I can see 4-8 inches, but we also have the chance of drifting into the dry slot for lesser accumulations. Storm should roll through Tuesday and continue into Wednesday when things taper off. Most of thesnow will fall during the day hours (7am-7pm) Right now some forecasts call for 4+ inches, another says 8-12. Although there is high confidence of the track, I still think it being 3 or so days off will offer some change. Looking at the GFS and NAM model myself it does look like a rather strong area of precip will stay over our area for quite a long time (12 hours). Looking at older model runs it does look consistent and I think that is where all this confidence is coming from.

NOAA GFS

The form of the storm is a key part in what areas get the most snow. Usually you want to be near the Rain-Snow line because that offers the most temperature change and therefore the most convection for cloud development. More cloud = more precipitation. In our case it will be plenty cold for all snow. As the Low tracks north under us, the warmer moist air will condense from the cold air and cause it to form clouds and precipitation. If you get lucky, like we may, the Low will stall and just rotate on its axis flinging heavy snow over an area. Definatly will keep an eye on this storm, hoping it shifts its ETA so maybe something else can happen…

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About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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