First watch of the year

First watch to kick off our area will be a Tornado Watch, out now and until 11pm tonight. Tagged Tornado Watch 143, this is a huge watch that covers parts of Indiana, Ohio and extreme Southern Michigan. While wind and hail are the primary threats, tornado chances are high as well. Within the watch, there is a 60% chance of 2 tornadoes, and a 40% chance of one ‘strong’ tornado (F2-F5). Other hazards like wind damage and hail are much higher, 80% respectively for each. This data is from the NWS Storm Prediction Center, a wonderful place to be right about now :P .

Radar shows a line of organizing storms over Grand Rapids area zooming east. Expect some new storms to pop up beforehand, and these will develop into storms. (That was a pointless sentence) I don’t see where supercells are going to develop since this front is really trucking across the state. I think we may just be in for a rough ride on some storms squalls and it will all be done. Think most of the action will take place along and south of the Ohio/Michigan border as stated. I could end up choking on these words, but I really do not see the organization needed for supercell growth. I think if we did not have so much cloud cover during the day, and more thermal heating was allowed, we could be sitting pretty for some serious(like super serious) storms tonight. Areas south have had this daytime heating and are right under the crosshairs for these storms. None the less, the experts have set out a Tornado Watch for a reason meaning conditions are favorable for tornadic development.

Squall line off Lake Michigan at this time seems pretty concentrated, gonna have some decent straight-line winds in that puppy. It may actually split a little and become individual cells which may be our source of supercells, will keep and eye on it. While that is 3-4 hours away, it may weaken some, but then the watch is out until 11pm for a reason.

Keep an eye on the skies tonight and be safe!


About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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