Short Term/Long Term

Since the short term looks pretty regular minus a possible shower this weekend, I thought I would devote a little post on the long term and the GFS also shows some interesting things.

In that short term, showers look to dampen the weekend for most of Michigan. A low will track from the plains bringing a cold front through (the previous ‘storm’ I thought would pass through last post). Nice temp in the 60s late this week will be reduced to 50s and 40s. Don’t think we will see any thunderstorms, more like just a cool, fall rain. Would not be surprised if some of the rain later in the weekend was lake-effect as the lakes are still really warm and these cold shots like to spit off some extra precip.

This passing cold front brings down some cool air that will stick around for quite some time. Previously this season things have been back and forth; cool air comes down, warm air swings up to replace. Now however this cool air looks to hang on for a few lows passing by. With this air in place me thinks some increased chances of seeing some flakes. While it is (really) fun to look way ahead with the GFS, it is wildly inaccurate at even a week in the future. What I have noticed though, is that it still picks up storms well, its just a manner of where they will go.

Culprit #1 (just thought of a cool way to present these in the future, you shall see)
Date of arrival: November 17-19

Clipper system? (click image for full size)

Culprit One I see as a possible clipper system coming off of Canada. To help guide what I am looking at, Central Mexico is at the bottom of the picture, follow him up until you see Texas and maybe the rest of the US will come into view. The Low in question on this frame is located over Northern Minnesota. Expect this to swing further south producing some light rain/snow across Michigan, temperature permitting.

The Kicker: That huge blob of green off the East coast is almost guiding the storm coming out of Canada, where he goes will decide the fate of our clipper system. Previous runs had this blog running all over the place, west of the Appalachians, east of the Appalachians, and now off the East Coast.

Culprit #2
Date of Arrival: Weekend before Thanksgiving

Texas Low? or just a mess? (click on image for full size)

Where do I start with Culprit 2? WHERE?! What kind of madness is this?!?! Quit getting my hopes up GFS, its a mean thing to do.  This is the same view but with more green(GFS is more liberal a week or two out). What is interesting is the GFS has been showing a storm around this date for a few days now, on multiple runs. So something is going to happen, but it is a guess as to where it is going to actually and finally happen. The amount of cool air this brings down is CRAZY for this time of year. That blue -20 contour line is COLD. One of the reasons it is so cold there, Culprit #1 is sitting nice and powerful in the upper right digging a huge path for the air. If this picture were to happen, places would get dumped on with snow. Area from Michigan to Oklahoma have chances, some ice storms could also be possible.

The Kicker: The GFS. Things like this happen pretty often for the GFS model, but the fact it has been showing some sort of storm like this for a few days is a little….dare I say….possible???

Bottom line, don’t pull out the sleds yet, lets give this storm a little more time for it to come within forecast period. Otherwise it is nice to speculate. Another white Thanksgiving would be pleasant!


About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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