Fun looking Thanksgiving Week!

Last entry I mentioned two possible ‘culprits’ as storms go, but really fizzled out later. The 17th-19th storm turned out to be a few flurries, which I saw floating about today, (yay snow!) and the Weekend storm looks to be wet. I could just say it was moved back a few days, which almost looks likely?!?!

Been looking for the storied CPC Winter Outlook, but apparently I am blind. Will keep looking about for it.

Still looking at the models hopeful for a early snowstorm even though the Upper Midwest seems to have won that prize already.

Because the GFS lets us go out that far, I will use it! Monday a system cuts through Wisconsin and Minnesota tracking northeast. This will put Michigan on the warm side. Any shoppers or Turkey hunters will receive a drenching. What I find cool though is how further low pressure systems spawn on the tail of this system. Following the Polar Front Theory, (which I just happily learned about this past week in MET) a second storm is triggered that follows a path further to the East. This one shows a hint of the white stuff as at least west portions of Michigan will be on the cool side of the system. Imagine the track will vary from now to then, heck maybe the storm will even disappear. But with the European model backing the GFS, confidence is higher.

Image from NCEP/NWS/NOAA

From there on the model takes everything out of proportion and things are wacky, by my views anyway.

Bottom line, wet weekend leading up to Thanksgiving, maybe some fluffy stuff for the actual Thanksgiving event, and a chilly weekend! Should be a weather filled week either way!

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About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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