Typical Model Waffle

This morning I was a little discouraged about this weekend storm. I saw the models took the storm far east and blew up there, leaving Michigan untouched. Those misses are so annoying when all the media blows up about some HUGE storm over the Northeast. Really is hard to make any accurate decision about this storm right now. With 5 days (approx) to go…things can go all twisty and someone out of the game now, gets it all. I’ve fallen to this many times, getting hopes up only to see it fall apart or just miss. Will dive into some details now though, because I said I would yesterday.

I noticed this ‘waffle’ or change in track from last night. Things looked different on the Global Forecast Model (GFS) this morning. Decided to take the effort and help point out Michigan in some maps here. Cropped the original images and outlined Michigan. All of these images reference the same time in the future (18z Dec 12th,Sunday afternoon). (Original images from NCEP/NWS/NOAA)

18z GFS Run for Sunday 18z (1 or 2pm Eastern time)

(December 6th, 2010)

This is a storm track that would destroy the Ohio Valley with snow. Close isobars also refer to strong winds, probably blizzard conditions.

00z GFS Run for Sunday 18z

December 7th, 2010

Way different track from the previous run. Notice the Low pressure center is more south and east, riding the Appalachian Mtns. Heavy snow in Ohio and parts of Indiana.

06z GFS Run for Sunday

(December 7th, 2010)

Low placed little further south from 00z run. Large swath of heavy snow in Ohio, Kentucky, and Western Pennsylvania.

12z GFS Run Sunday 18z

(December 7th, 2010)

All of a sudden, storm track is north again! This waffle shows that you can't really rely on models this far out. Will have to wait a few more days to punch things in place. Good snows for most of Lower Michigan here and again the Ohio Valley.

Now that that is out of the way. What does it all mean? If things follow the 12z, we could see 6+ inches on the ground by midweek next week. Now the GFS is not the only model to watch here. Other long and medium range models have their own solutions. In this case am just using the GFS because it is easy to access and capture to share. Some if not most of the models are honing in on a similar situation, so this gives a good idea. Will keep updated and all that jazz. Could be in for our first significant winter storm! Will wait out all the model waffle and nail this sucker down.

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About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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