Lesson Learned?

Well, Mr. Snowstorm has decided to stay out west. While I am disappointed I will miss out of a good 6-12 inch snowstorm like I had mentioned earlier, it was still a fantastic thing to witness. The heavy snows will develop tonight and spread across most of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Stuff will roll through Michigan as a cold front for the most part, before wrap around snows come in to make it all frosty. Good term there…FROSTY. COLD. So 4 inches may be a stretch…but areas in the thumb and north of I-96 can expect 4 and maybe more. Only limiting factor is mixed precip down south.

I say this is maybe a lesson learned in that all week long forecasters have been looking at a few models and dumping a few in the garbage. I mentioned earlier that there are many models to choose from that have their own ‘bias’ of sorts. Well one of those models that was considered ‘dumped’ was the European model, or the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Thing is, the model is copyrighted pretty heavily and cannot be shown without permission or an account. Anyway, some forecasters had thrown this model out because it showed the storm way out west a week ago. Well guess what. That model was right, or at least way better than the raved GFS and other models used countlessly the past week! Was only yesterday that the GFS started rendering a similar path the Euro had a week ago. Now surly this is just a hiccup, pretty lucky for the Euro to snag this storm a week out. However just the fact that it was tossed out is kinda weird. The NWS forecast discussions gave equality between all the models and even favored the Euro. Looks like it was the right choice.

While the track is still in the air it was a tricky storm to forecast. The clipper that came through Thursday night really threw a screwball and I think the models have it down pat now. Thinking the low will pass right over the mid part of Michigan or even further south.

Weekend will be a slop fest, getting cooler as it progresses. Will get a fairly substantial dry slot to limit precip, but once that is over snow will fall as cooler temps rush in. At times it may feel well below 0 as winds will also be howling. Be sure to limit time exposed and cover up!


About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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