X Marks the Spot! (Live updates through Wednesday! Keep checking back!)

First live post trial! Keep checking back for updates! Will probably be up until 2am watching this anyway…and doing a physics lab. Going to run it through Wednesday and see how this works out for everyone. Please feel free to drop a comment in either voicing some weather reports or just how I am doing. Thanks! (Reverse chronological order NOW!)

1:40 pm Wednesday

Slept a little more just to enjoy the day off. Snow is heavy again in a band that has lifted through the area. This will keep areas dusted. Think most of the heavy precip associated with the band will be dissapaiting while some reinforcements develop off the lake moving northeast. At this hour expect most of the precip to be north of I-96. Will see how things wrap up as the whole system moves east.

Temperature has dropped down south and anything that moves through the area should be frozen or freezing rain. Watch for slick areas. Winter Weather Advisory has been dropped for southern counties, and is creeping up the mitten as the storm wraps up. Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for northern parts, especially north of the thumb where I believe still has a shot for more inches snow. Think this may be just north of Mount Pleasant as RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) models predict.

Rapid Update Cycle model showing total accumulated snowfall through the day.

8:00 am Wednesday

Snow is now up to 5.5″. Everything outside is a wasteland from what I can see. Central is closed once again, really did not see that coming. Same parking lot shot:

Parking lot sure got white over the period.

And as promised, the measurement:

5.5"? Close enough. Probably on grassy surfaces anyway.

Little dry period again here, but expect winds to pick up today as the low tracks eastward and snow to redevelop as well. Will catch up at a later time.

2:15 am Wednesday

Looking to sign off here in a few. Went out and did a quick measurement, t-shirt and shorts made sure the trip was quick.

Construction equipment was busy plowing the parking lot across the street, if this is the case, probably won’t have a full out cancellation tomorrow. Would expect sparse classes to be cancelled.

Noooo! Leave it be! (Will probably melt faster for all you snow trashers)

Got a few weird looks as I trudged outside with a ruler and a camera…in shorts and a T. But its all in the game.

Good 3 inches off the sidewalk. Probably deeper on grass. Layer on top reveals some sleet evidence. Snow was heavy and wet as I walked in it. (Thanks for the ruler Peter)

So halfway to the 6″ I wanted. Not bad, but was truthfully expecting more. Will see how long this dry area hangs around and when snow starts tomorrow! Good night.

1:20 am Wednesday

Sleet and freezing rain on the window. Another amplified band heading through but not as strong as the other one. Radar suggests some warmer air is filtering in and that would match with the sleet situation. Missed a Mesoscale Discussion that was posted around 10pm. Maybe we still have a shot at thunder tonight:

   FORECAST MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
   SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE CRYSTAL
   GROWTH ZONE SO PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE.

Exciting! Not so sure it will happen within the next hour I am here, but it is something to listen for as we drift off to dreamland!

Looks like a snoozer tonight along I-94, sorry for all the people in Chelsea looking for a possible snow day. Things don’t look to fire up down there until around noon tomorrow. A few precip bands will be there throughout the night however. Still keep an eye open tomorrow morning for road conditions.

11:30 pm Tuesday

I must have the power to dodge thundersnow. Was in the hallway when shouts of thunder were heard…and I didn’t get any of it! The line I thought would most definitely bring the convection needed went through with a whimper. Really strong snow rates were there though.

Shot of our system. Here you can see the isobars, or divisions of pressure, placed close together where the precipitation is. Northward, high pressure is situated over Hudson Bay, and around Iowa you can see the center of low pressure. Where the lines are close, high winds can be expected and ultimately this mess of a storm. As the system tracks east, expect winds to pick up as that pressure gradient increases.

In for quite a ride!

Looking at rapid refresh models, a dry slot may move in in the early morning hours, but will be replaced later with another round of precip, all depends on how far north the low tracks with the strong high pressure to the north!

9:30 pm Tuesday

WordPress is back! Longest hours of my life right there. TONS of weather happened and is happening, lets get a catch up!

Busy! Busy! Busy!

Latest radar sweep shows more powerful precip forming off Lake Michigan. The yellow patch south of Grand Rapids really blew up over the last half hour.

Bright yellows indicating heavy precip moving north. Could also be the result of freezing rain.

Storm seems to be itching northward right now, and that makes me think most of the snow accumulations will be way north. However, with most of the storm still across Lake Michigan, will not get too depressed!

Sever weather broke out across parts of Iowa today. Some REALLY noteworthy supercells.

Some of these had really distinctive 'hook echoes' which are usually a clear indicator of strong rotation and a possible tornado.

From a visible satellite, these storms can be spotted just popping out of no where!

Made the black box to emphasize location of the storms.

Stay tuned…hope I can stay awake…wait…its a snowstorm, of course I can!

4:30 PM Tuesday

Snow has started here in Mount Pleasant, and it will continue through Wednesday.

Most of the snow is accumulating on rough surfaces. Roads and sidewalks appear wet, and snow is melting on contact. This is expected because it is a wet heavy snow, and temperatures are still fairly warm. This could turn problematic as more snow accumulates on trees and power lines as the night goes on.

Still running on the regions mentioned last post, only the region of freezing rain may have shifted a little further south to the I-96 corridor. Again, a good amount around a quarter inch to half inch of ice is possible.

Most Winter Storm Watches have transitioned to Warnings (happened this morning), and Michigan is a giant pink glove once again.

NOAA

Busy Watch/Warning map as a Low deepens and tracks eastward.

Precip appeared on radar just after noon today, but was not reaching the ground. Hour or so later, giant snowflakes filled the air. Quick check of the radar shows more heavy snow emerging from Lake Michigan and amplifying.

Early fringes of storm look powerful! Order of intensity: Blue->Green->Yellow->Red

Could be some thundersnow possible as more convective cells make their way northward. Southern regions will have rain and thunder now and then.

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About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

3 Responses to X Marks the Spot! (Live updates through Wednesday! Keep checking back!)

  1. Pamela Cornwell says:

    So, how much snow did you get up there in Mt Pleasant? Here, just north of Chelsea, we had lots of rain and I had no trouble with icy roads this morning on the way to work although I anticipated some. The temp at home was 33* in the morning. Great job reporting the active weather, Greg!

  2. DAD says:

    Hello,
    The temp is dropping, 26 at 10:00pm.
    I am getting new laptop tomorrow.
    I can maybe stay more tuned in to your info. Thank you.
    When I took off from work tonight my whole car was covered with ice.
    Come on spring!!!!!!!!!!!
    Dad

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