First Snow in Sight

Last weeks’ storm analysis is actually holding out fairly well! There was a little swerve off the path over the early weekend, but a mess of a storm is still expected to cut through the Great Lakes this week.

Only thing different from last post is timing. Storm has jumped a day or so ahead, impacting our area Tuesday/Tuesday night. What is expected to start as rain will change to snow Tuesday night. While the core of snow still needs to be pinned down(that’s usually game time decision anyway), it is looking like southwestern lower Michigan will receive the most accumulation. The past 24 hours, the HPC has highlighted central lower Michigan for a swath between 4-8 inches pretty reasonably. Discussions from the HPC also detail the possibility.

Not sure if I am on that bandwagon quite yet. While the cold air will certainly be there to fall as snow, I think accumulations will be cut back due to the current ground state. After a pretty mild week, it will take a little time for the snow to actually build. After a fresh rain that is sometimes multiplied. I would think 2-4 on grassy surfaces and a wet slush on roadways. A lot still needs to be settled on just how much precipitation will be left once temps drop. This factor may be excused thanks to the rare cut off low setup whipping in more moisture than normal.

This will certainly be a interesting and fun system to follow! With the cut off low’s nature, more moisture will arrive quicker and the cold air will filter in faster as well. It’s just a matter of where the environment will be ideal for snows!

I think this is a rather generous amount of snow represented in this picture, but it shows the location I believe will end up with the best accumulations.

Lucky areas in southwestern Michigan could see a nice dump of snow first time out!


About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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