Winter At The Door

I can only agree with people after meeting them after break, winter has been almost non-existent for us.

First off, what is there to blame for this meager winter?

I recommend you take a peek at Dr. Jeff Master’s blog over on Wunderground. Specifically this one. Masters co-founded Weather Underground Inc (the place my weather station data is sent and put online) in 1995 while working on his PhD on Atmospheric Pollution at the University of Michigan. Very neat stuff!

Mentioned last time a pattern change is in the works. This will take full effect Thursday when two storms merge to dig deep. Moisture will arrive from the south via a low pressure area ejecting along the Gulf Coast, and the north in shape of a weak clipper system. This storm is really cool to look at on models because its as if the clipper system gets caught in the wake of the storm coming up from the south. Once the southern storm treads north, it takes on a negative tilt feature and sucks the clipper in on the backside. This brings in chilly air, and snow.

Two storms will phase and cause a decent amount of snow to fall in at least part of Michigan. Note the 'clipper' system out of southern Canada, and the southern low moving northward from Mississippi.GFS images via Penn State Dept. of Meteorology.

The lake effect machines will churn out inch after inch along the Lake Michigan coastline. Winter Storm Watches were issued this afternoon for much of that area. Surrounding areas may get the same treatment as the storm is nailed down, specifically central lower Michigan. Grand Rapids NWS is calling for a 6 inch snowfall, but I know they like over estimating. This is most likely going to happen in the strongest lake effect snow bands.

Most likely, rain will kick us off Wednesday/Wed night. Once cold air is ushered in, things will switch to snow in a snap. Heads up!



About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

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