Going Out Swinging

The heat that is.

Another round of warm temps will grace us with its presence this week before a questionable weekend ahead. Lets take a look.

Thick fog and some convective storms has been the highlight of the past week. I believe all day Tuesday I didn’t even get a glimpse of a cloud deck. We were in a ground fog all day. A thick layer of stratus above helped limit fog burn off, and this was confirmed when rain and drizzle started mid day. The steam from the CMU boiler is fun to keep track of as days roll by. You can tell a good bit by analysing how fast the steam burns off or what direction it takes. In these days of high moisture, the steam lasts a lot longer. Instead of a short few hundred meters from the source, it was pacing across campus today.

Dynamic skies are all about recently. Last Monday I was out taking photos and almost got caught in a storm. It was after a bunch of rain, and as I biked across a field, I could feel my tires sinking in a making a lovely squishy splashy sound. A few temporary rivers were alive in drainage areas. Parked the bike and walked a bit. To the northwest a glaciated cumulonimbus could be seen giving its last breath. The west shown a large wall of stratus moving in. The sun was setting and met the edge giving it a crisp light edging to it. A deck of ragged cloud was moving through fast. Then south, convective clouds were firing.

(click for larger)

The sky changed often, so I hung around for a good hour just shooting all around me. Checking some radar a storm was heading this way, so I stayed until the last possible moment and went home. The whole time I saw someone kicking a ball around on a nearby field. He decided to get his cardio in running from the storm. I got home just in time(excuse the horrendous videographer work, this is why I take stills):

Most of Friday and Saturday were spent under cloudy skies thanks to a low pressure system that was ‘cut off’ from the main jet stream  These tend to stick around longer because there is little motivation for the area of low pressure to move along. Sometimes you get lucky and they intensify so much, they look like a hurricane forming in the middle of a continental area.

Not from this past event, but a very prominent feature from Sept 27, 2011 on MODIS Today. Further reading and information can be found on the CIMSS Blog.

As this feature exited Sunday and Monday, a ridge of high pressure built that allowed us to see warmer temperatures. These are expected to continue through Thursday where we could see the mid 70s.

These temps will again be pushed down by a cold front that sweeps through Thursday Night/Friday. Temps will setting in the 50s on Friday. Lingering precip could include some wet flurries as cold air filters in.

After the weekend, things get interesting. Lots of talk about our first flakes of snow…to a massive deluge of snow(no hype here!).

What has been briefly hinted at by the European model is a tropical disturbance (now Tropical Storm Sandy) will come up the east coast, at the same time the front comes through our area on Thursday. I really don’t know how to explain the next bit, because computer forecast models can pull the silliest stuff out of a hat at long-range forecasts. Anyway. Sandy gets stuck under the front and would start to drift inland causing tons of precip of all ranges in the Great Lakes/Northeast. Including snow in our area. Early trends said we would get some absurd amount of snow (like 2 feet, no problem). However, the ECMWF model is all alone in this case against other models, so only enjoy this model as a early winter buzz.

GFS model has none of this, and keeps the systems separate. Sandy will pull off east as the front pushes through normally. Possibly a little secondary low development is there, but we’ll see.

Will watch this storm situation as the weekend approaches, and Sandy organizes.


About gweatherc
Live in Michigan and enjoy observing the weather. Want to pursue it as a career! Currently taking classes at Central Michigan University.

One Response to Going Out Swinging

  1. Ryan says:

    I’m jumping on board the snowstorm hype-train. I love me some snow.

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