Week Rumblings (Sept 18, 2013)

Cardboard skies have given way to a beautiful Wednesday heading into what looks like a dreary end of the week. This doesn’t necessarily include the weekend.

Thursday will be hot and humid with thunderstorms likely on Friday as we will reside in the ‘warm sector’ of a mid-latitude cyclone. The warm sector is a region of warm moist air that is located between the associated warm front and cold front of a low pressure system. Typically, the warm sector is a nice place to look for thunderstorm development as the cold front sweeps behind acting as a lifting mechanism. This will be the case on Thursday with hot and humid conditions in place, and an increased chance of thunder on Friday when the cold front moves through.

Forcasted surface map for Thursday evening showing Michigan in the warm sector behind the red warm-front, and blue cold-front.

Forecasted surface map for Thursday evening showing Michigan in the warm sector behind the red warm-front, and blue cold-front following for Friday.

Cooler and drier air will move in for the weekend as the cold front wipes this mess clean. An area of high pressure will dominate this weekend bringing temperatures in the mid 60s and clear skies to the area.

Tropical weather is off to a slow start as Tropical Storm Humberto wanders along disorganized out in the Atlantic. Humberto is expected to remain a Tropical Storm, and take a journey northward. A broad region of low pressure over the Yucatán Peninsula looks promising, but remains plagued by its own disorganization. As this area moves north and west, it is expected to achieve depression status, but this is over the next 48 hours.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Manuel is docking along the Baja peninsula. Manuel is actually on the weather map above painted as a Tropical Depression in the coming days.

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Week Rumblings (Sept. 9, 2013)

Been a rather busy summer. Despite some neat weather events taking place, I’ve either; A: written half of a post and it got past a relevant time to be posted or B: just was flat-out too busy to write something up! Let’s see how far we get this time…

Big story this week is our temperature fluctuations. Around the beginning of September, temps were right on the money and we were getting that nice Fall vibe going on. Beautiful weather topped off last week with highs in the mid-70s and clear skies. It also felt nice and crisp outside, actually noticed this due to slightly increased distance visibility. Our slate had been wiped clean early in the week after some storms, and the humidity had retreated south. However the weather systems had other plans and threw us a curve ball early this week. Today felt like we were back in the middle of summer! Highs topped out at 93F today, dew-point temps were in the mid 60s, so the humidity was around as well. This is all thanks to a ridge that developed early this week which pumped warm, moist, southern air into our region.  Last week with our cooler temperatures, a strong low pressure area over NE Canada provided us with air drawn from the cooler north. So we are seeing tales from both sides, in other words, Fall.

Won't be long before trees start looking a little more diverse in color!

Won’t be long before trees start looking a little more diverse in color! (and the sun setting earlier)

The heat won’t last long. This was the one day that stood out reaching the 90s. We will begin cooling down for the rest of the week, and enjoy a 60s weekend. With this temp swing, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms to go with it. These won’t last past Thursday evening. A few short-range, high-resolution models show a line of showers and thunderstorms developing along the cold front as it slowly drapes across the region. This line will begin in northern Michigan late tonight/early Wednesday morning and progress SE.

Bottom Line: This was a one-off hot day, expect the next two days to be cooling down, but filled with on and off showers. Weekend looks clear and cool. Enjoy temperatures in the mid 60s, 30 degrees cooler than Tuesday!

 

Early Week Rumblings (July 8, 2013)

A weakening cold front will bring rain and embedded thunderstorms today. Near time of posting, the swath of rain was fairly impressive and is sure to bring a relief to a recent slowdown in rain amounts. Nothing like a nice rainy day now and then. Some storms do seem to be popping up ahead and in the complex. These should be brief with a few rumbles of thunder here and there.

Swath of showers and thunderstorms will move through Michigan this afternoon and early evening.

Swath of showers and thunderstorms will move through Michigan this afternoon and early evening.

Meanwhile, a stronger front with much cooler air will develop in the Midwest and track eastward on Tuesday. With this stronger front come stronger thunderstorm parameters. The usual players will be there. Lift will be provided by the cold front, moisture is already in place with high dew-points into the 60-70 range, and the atmosphere will have instability as CAPE values approach 3000 J/KG. Additional parameters to look at include wind shear; which is how the wind changes(speed/direction/both) from the Earth’s surface to 6 or so kilometers in the atmosphere, and occasionally the LI or Lifted Index(another indicator of instability); comparing a theoretical air parcel’s temperature to the environment temperature surrounding it.

The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a few solutions to this event, mainly around a few Mesoscale Convective Systems. These will birth in the Midwest and track eastward with the front. Main threat will be some strong winds and large hail with these systems. Tornadoes can be a threat as well, generally during initial discrete development, but not limited to.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s through Wednesday. Once these fronts pass early week, Thursday and Friday will be cooler before temperatures rebound into the 80s for the weekend.

Stay tuned to the Facebook page for tiny updates and cool weather stuff from the social media world.

Thanks for the read, feel free to comment/ask questions!

Springing Along

The past few weeks have proved a questionable spring. Temps failing to reach 60, frozen precipitation, a sun missing in action….can’t rely on Midwest weather to be on a consistent time-table.

At least two of these mentioned will be absent this week. Perhaps the most justifying, rain and warmer weather will arrive.

Rain is no stranger so far this Spring. A nice dose of 2+ inches across the region last week has us well above normal for the year(yellow line). Rain is again in the forecast for the week. Rainmakers will appear on Monday/Monday Night, as well as heading into Thursday when conditions may threaten for some severe weather along the Michigan/Ohio border. This will need to be looked at as the week progresses. Through next Saturday, a good two inches of rain could fall in already saturated areas, so flooding will again be possible.

Grand Rapids climate graph of 2013 so far.

Grand Rapids climate graph of 2013 so far.

At least the precipitation will be in liquid form. Sleet was reported in southern Michigan on Sunday, and Central Michigan University campus had a delayed start on Friday thanks to a sleet/freezing rain combination Thursday evening. That event may have been worse had the days leading up to the storm not been above freezing. Ground warmth did a good job at fighting off ice accumulation on surfaces. Trees don’t harbor this ability as well, and ice on the branches was evident while out and about on Friday.

Warm weather will filter into the region with our rain producing pattern. A ridge will amplify over the Midwest, and the warm air will be allowed to travel north. However, with that transport is the mentioned moisture. Temperatures will start in the lower 60s for Monday, and top out in the mid/upper 60s on Thursday. Once we have our stormy day on Thursday, the associated cold front and trough will bring in some cooler spring air, but still above freezing during the day. Yay progress! Hang in there!